Archive for category Liberal
A new EKOS poll released today shows the current election in Ontario in a dead heat with the NDP up slightly at 38.4%, PC’s 37.9%, Liberals at 19.1%, and the Greens at 3.3%.
There is a lot of volatility with the millennial vote in this poll as the millennials have been known to screw with pollsters. Frank Graves the CEO of EKOS stated over twitter they found a lot of volatile movement in the polling samples from the millennial’s and they were having a hard time getting a good read on that. In fact this poll was delayed for a few days to confirm what they were seeing in the data.
What’s more interesting is that the NDP seems to be chewing at the PC base, showing NDP leads now with older voters:
And a shift in support by the middle class which the NDP now lead in:
What does all this mean. It means that if the NDP continue to chew at the PC base, the NDP could likely win more seats even if they are a few points ahead. If that base shifts back to the PC’s the same scenario would play out on the PC side. When asked about the possibility of a late shift in the polls a few days prior to election day, Graves had this to offer on social media:
Don’t expect as much .There has already been huge movement . Because of the tightness of race, even modest movements could yield profoundly different outcomes.
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 30, 2018
So buckle up! It looks like this election will be decided at the ballot box on June 7th. But if current trends continue, the NDP could likely to form the next government in Ontario.
A new Ipsos poll shows for the first time the Ontario NDP in the lead. The poll also shows that the NDP have started to chip away at the Tory base in the 905. The NDP are now in a statistical tie with the PC’s in the 905 region, with the PC’s holding a slight advantage in the Toronto 416 ridings. The Tories still lead in Eastern Ontario by 10 points.
This shift in the 905 could be a result of voters a still angry over the backroom deal to sell off of the greenbelt. As we reported previously, voters in the 905 are still very raw on the issue. Another factor could be that the PC’s are under investigation by two law enforcement divisions and Elections Ontario regarding fraud and stolen data from the 407 ETR. Whatever the case this is a stunning turn of events in the Ontario election, as once again it looks like the PC’s commanding lead at the beginning has vanished, and voters are looking elsewhere.
Mike Moffatt who is a director at the independent think tank Canada 2020, and an associate professor at the Ivey Business School, has come up with an interesting post comparing the platforms of each party in the Ontario election and how they compare to deficit projections. Moffatt’s deficit projections put the PC’s with the highest run deficits, with the Liberals in close second, and the NDP with the lowest deficit projections. These numbers include the recent correction of $1.4 billion/year the NDP has had to make on reserves.
Moffatt noted that there is a lot of unknowns when it comes to the PC platform, however right now – on the information they have currently provided to the public – the PCs seem to be running significantly higher deficits in their platform than the other two parties.
The latest poll from Abacus shows that the PC’s and NDP are now neck in neck with Ontario voters. The PC’s lead seems to have evaporated, and the progressive vote is moving from the Liberals over to the NDP.
The PC campaign has been plagued with controversy over this past week, from the selloff of user data from the 407 to help with PC fundraising, to PC Leader Doug Ford secretly attending a fundraiser outside of the election period and breaking election laws, to the York Regional Police and Election Ontario opening up investigations into the theft of data from the 407 ETR. It’s no wonder why to end his week Ford chose to stop in York-Simcoe that has been considered a “safe” riding for the PC’s.
Hoping to get a warm reception in York-Simcoe, Ford was met by several concerned residents over the backroom sell off of the Greenbelt which is still a very hot topic locally. You can view the exchange below:
— Robin Mae Legault (@MaeLegault) May 19, 2018
With election day two and a half weeks away, this election is shaping up to be one of change. Ontario voters don’t seem to be too interested in a right wing populist movement as we’ve seen with in the US with Trump. Earlier last year I discussed the real chances of the NDP shaping government and that this election will be shape up around the millennial vote which typically votes progressive left. Journalists are reporting that millennials seem to be quite engaged in this election:
Elections Ontario staff at my polling place who has worked on every fed/prov elxn in my riding since 2005 says she’s already noticed much higher number of first-time voters — young people and immigrants. Excellent.
— David Akin 🇨🇦 (@davidakin) May 19, 2018
Over the past year we’ve seen shifts in policy by both the PC’s and Liberals over to the left in expectation of this. The PC’s felt the party was too far left in its policies under previous leadership and staged a coup against former PC leader Patrick Brown, opting for a right wing populist Doug Ford. The Liberals had a chance to replace their leader Kathleen Wynne during an expected change election and chose not too. Both parties seem to have miscalculated, and in two and a half weeks we’ll find out how large of a miscalculation will be for both parties.
(Current Platforms in Ontario’s 2018 Election Puts Province At Risk of a Credit Downgrade)
Late Tuesday afternoon Moody’s downgraded the economic outlook for Ontario from stable to negative. In its press release Moody’s cited the recently tabled Liberal budget, and growing spending pressure from all parties that need to be addressed as the economy is expected to retract 1% by 2021. Moody’s also cites current household debt is a record high level, and that key interest rates are likely to rise as a result, making it expensive to service the debt, with retracted economic growth. If spending pressures do not ease post-election, it could mean that Ontario could face a credit downgrade in the very near future which would have a huge impact on the provinces ability to borrow money.
What does this mean for autism services? Over the past several years the autism community has been dealing with austerity through the Wynne Liberals. The last time Moody warned of an impending credit downgrade Wynne slashed special needs education budgets, tried to lower the age of behavioral therapy, and froze special services at home funding. Just in time for the election Wynne has stopped a lot of the austerity measures she put into place, and focused more investment in autism services in Ontario, with huge spending promises in other areas.
The NDP have released their platform, which is huge on spending rather than prioritizing. The NDP in their election platform have stated that they are willing to keep the status quo in Wynne’s investment in Autism Services. In fact NDP MPP Monique Taylor took to social media to try and calm the nerves of parents that the NDP would in fact keep investments the Liberals have made in place, however did not respond to questions regarding Moody’s economic outlook downgrade and what the NDP would do to shift priories to protect the disabled from austerity measures. Taylor who has championed parents’ plight with austerity in the past is currently being sued for human rights abuses in her own constituency office. NDP leader Andrea Horwath has stated in the past that she may take action against Ms. Taylor if a negative judgement is placed on Taylor’s conduct.
Doug Ford hasn’t released any policy platform at all.
With a credit downgrade almost certain in the near future with the current platforms, all three parties should clearly express to the people of Ontario exactly what their priorities are and where the cuts will be. The disabled should not be the punching bag of austerity. They’ve been through enough of that over the past few years. The cupboards so to speak are already bare. The tax payers deserve answers.
UPDATE 12:43: Finance Minister Charles Sousa has responded to the Moody’s downgrade:
— NEWSTALK1010 (@NEWSTALK1010) April 18, 2018
You can read the full Moody’s press release below:
A new poll from Forum Research shows a downward trend for the Ontario PC’s since the Patrick Brown resigned as party leader in January. It’s been long suspected that the far right social conservative movement in the party is to blame for putting pressure on Brown to resign. The poll also seems to suggest that there is an uptick in support for the Wynne Liberal’s as disenfranchised progressives from the PC party seem to be correlating around the Liberal’s election platform. This spells bad news for the current PC party leader Doug Ford because if an election were to be held today, he would win, but not with a majority mandate from voters and he doesn’t seem to be connecting with the majority of voters in the province a few months out from a general election.
(Andrea Horwath Looks Tone Deaf on Biggest Voting Demographic)
The decision by Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne to order striking college workers back to work was a decision that was based purely on politics geared towards getting the millennial vote ahead of provincial election. Wynne has seemingly backed the Ontario NDP into a corner on their union values, as the NDP fights back to stall back to work legislation. It’s an interesting position, considering Ontario students have long suffered under Liberal rule as a result of educational unions, and lack of oversight in the public educational sector for well over a decade. A lot of the banter between both the Liberals and NDP has less to do with Ontario’s students, and more to do with the millennial vote.
The NDP had all the time needed over the past decade to bring up serious concerns of Ontario students, that being the lack of supports and oversight in our public education system on special needs students, the lack of compliance with human and charter rights of students in the system, and the fact that many students attending college and university can’t even afford rent let alone pay for classes they haven’t received as a result of this strike. Instead the NDP decided to die on a hill of its traditional values of workers’ rights. As the leader of Ontario’s NDP party Andrea Horwath put it in the Ontario legislature today regarding standing up for their party’s values for Ontario workers over Ontario’s students:
“We do it before an election, and we do it after an election”
Horwath went on to read a letter from a Niagara College student regarding how this student felt about workers’ rights and how the NDP should stand up against back to work legislation. I attended Niagara College myself for journalism back in the 90’s where our professors and staff were also threatening a strike at that time. Thankfully a strike was averted; however had any strike been applied during my studies I would want to be compensated for that by the college. Nowhere in Horwath’s speech today or even from the Liberals has there been any talk of compensation for lost time in class as a result of this strike (which includes not just tuition but living expenses), and the rights of students to seek such compensation.
While Horwath’s speech focused in on the rights of college professors to earn a living, the rights of students to simply live with a roof over their head, and food on the table seemed to have been grossly disregarded. With the biggest voting demographic now up for grabs, will the Ontario NDP’s traditional values line up with those who out number financial donors to the party, and whether or not the Ontario NDP just shot itself in the foot with the millennials as a result of being completely tone deaf to the biggest voting demographic in Ontario. Wynne may be playing politics with respect to this back to work legislation; the NDP’s wounds seem to be rather self-inflicted.