Archive for category NDP
In a surprising turn of events, Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne has conceded that the Liberals will not win the next election. Some recent projections have the party holding on to maybe one or two seats after the polls close on June 7th. This concession has effectively thrown most of her candidates under the bus. There are reports surfacing on social media that those who have been supporting the Liberals in this election are starting to take their election signs down.
It’s widely expected that with this concession, Liberal voters will move their support to the more progressive option in this election which is the NDP. PC leader Doug Ford remained virtually silent on Wynne’s concession today. In fact over the past several days reporters following Ford’s campaign have reported on social media that he is being held back by his team, cancelling scheduled media interviews and generally not answering any questions. The last time this happened for a length of time, a major story ended up breaking regarding alleged fraud by a former 407 ETR employee and PC candidate. I posted yesterday that there are indications and a lot of chatter that details of relating to the 407 story could be forthcoming in a matter of days.
NDP leader Andrea Horwath responded to Wynne’s concession that the only party able to stop a Ford government and a right wing populist movement is to vote NDP. Current polling has both the NDP and the PC’s neck and neck. This will most likely change over the next few days as we see Liberal voters move over to the NDP.
While Wynne’s move is admirable to some, the hell this government put families of autistic children through over the past two years is not. Karma as it seems has run its full course. Future governments should take note.
A new EKOS poll released today shows the current election in Ontario in a dead heat with the NDP up slightly at 38.4%, PC’s 37.9%, Liberals at 19.1%, and the Greens at 3.3%.
There is a lot of volatility with the millennial vote in this poll as the millennials have been known to screw with pollsters. Frank Graves the CEO of EKOS stated over twitter they found a lot of volatile movement in the polling samples from the millennial’s and they were having a hard time getting a good read on that. In fact this poll was delayed for a few days to confirm what they were seeing in the data.
What’s more interesting is that the NDP seems to be chewing at the PC base, showing NDP leads now with older voters:
And a shift in support by the middle class which the NDP now lead in:
What does all this mean. It means that if the NDP continue to chew at the PC base, the NDP could likely win more seats even if they are a few points ahead. If that base shifts back to the PC’s the same scenario would play out on the PC side. When asked about the possibility of a late shift in the polls a few days prior to election day, Graves had this to offer on social media:
Don’t expect as much .There has already been huge movement . Because of the tightness of race, even modest movements could yield profoundly different outcomes.
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 30, 2018
So buckle up! It looks like this election will be decided at the ballot box on June 7th. But if current trends continue, the NDP could likely to form the next government in Ontario.
A new Ipsos poll shows for the first time the Ontario NDP in the lead. The poll also shows that the NDP have started to chip away at the Tory base in the 905. The NDP are now in a statistical tie with the PC’s in the 905 region, with the PC’s holding a slight advantage in the Toronto 416 ridings. The Tories still lead in Eastern Ontario by 10 points.
This shift in the 905 could be a result of voters a still angry over the backroom deal to sell off of the greenbelt. As we reported previously, voters in the 905 are still very raw on the issue. Another factor could be that the PC’s are under investigation by two law enforcement divisions and Elections Ontario regarding fraud and stolen data from the 407 ETR. Whatever the case this is a stunning turn of events in the Ontario election, as once again it looks like the PC’s commanding lead at the beginning has vanished, and voters are looking elsewhere.
Mike Moffatt who is a director at the independent think tank Canada 2020, and an associate professor at the Ivey Business School, has come up with an interesting post comparing the platforms of each party in the Ontario election and how they compare to deficit projections. Moffatt’s deficit projections put the PC’s with the highest run deficits, with the Liberals in close second, and the NDP with the lowest deficit projections. These numbers include the recent correction of $1.4 billion/year the NDP has had to make on reserves.
Moffatt noted that there is a lot of unknowns when it comes to the PC platform, however right now – on the information they have currently provided to the public – the PCs seem to be running significantly higher deficits in their platform than the other two parties.
There has been a lot of hyperbole recently over the NDP Platform to make Ontario a sanctuary province by registered third party PC activists Ontario Proud. These activists are blatantly misleading their followers on this platform. The NDP platform is promising that regardless of immigration status it will not withhold “life saving” treatment from patients. Something PC Leader Doug Ford voted to approve when he was a Toronto City Councillor:
If Ford voted in favor of making Toronto a sanctuary city, than one can reasonably expect that could also be the case going forward if he wins the election. It’s not a bad idea, and providing life saving treatment to those in need is not only respecting our values as a province, but also respecting the provinces responsibility under human rights, and law. I think the people of Ontario need a definitive answer on whether Ford will in fact continue his support for this initiative, and follow human rights laws in Ontario if elected premier.
The latest poll from Abacus shows that the PC’s and NDP are now neck in neck with Ontario voters. The PC’s lead seems to have evaporated, and the progressive vote is moving from the Liberals over to the NDP.
The PC campaign has been plagued with controversy over this past week, from the selloff of user data from the 407 to help with PC fundraising, to PC Leader Doug Ford secretly attending a fundraiser outside of the election period and breaking election laws, to the York Regional Police and Election Ontario opening up investigations into the theft of data from the 407 ETR. It’s no wonder why to end his week Ford chose to stop in York-Simcoe that has been considered a “safe” riding for the PC’s.
Hoping to get a warm reception in York-Simcoe, Ford was met by several concerned residents over the backroom sell off of the Greenbelt which is still a very hot topic locally. You can view the exchange below:
— Robin Mae Legault (@MaeLegault) May 19, 2018
With election day two and a half weeks away, this election is shaping up to be one of change. Ontario voters don’t seem to be too interested in a right wing populist movement as we’ve seen with in the US with Trump. Earlier last year I discussed the real chances of the NDP shaping government and that this election will be shape up around the millennial vote which typically votes progressive left. Journalists are reporting that millennials seem to be quite engaged in this election:
Elections Ontario staff at my polling place who has worked on every fed/prov elxn in my riding since 2005 says she’s already noticed much higher number of first-time voters — young people and immigrants. Excellent.
— David Akin 🇨🇦 (@davidakin) May 19, 2018
Over the past year we’ve seen shifts in policy by both the PC’s and Liberals over to the left in expectation of this. The PC’s felt the party was too far left in its policies under previous leadership and staged a coup against former PC leader Patrick Brown, opting for a right wing populist Doug Ford. The Liberals had a chance to replace their leader Kathleen Wynne during an expected change election and chose not too. Both parties seem to have miscalculated, and in two and a half weeks we’ll find out how large of a miscalculation will be for both parties.
(Current Platforms in Ontario’s 2018 Election Puts Province At Risk of a Credit Downgrade)
Late Tuesday afternoon Moody’s downgraded the economic outlook for Ontario from stable to negative. In its press release Moody’s cited the recently tabled Liberal budget, and growing spending pressure from all parties that need to be addressed as the economy is expected to retract 1% by 2021. Moody’s also cites current household debt is a record high level, and that key interest rates are likely to rise as a result, making it expensive to service the debt, with retracted economic growth. If spending pressures do not ease post-election, it could mean that Ontario could face a credit downgrade in the very near future which would have a huge impact on the provinces ability to borrow money.
What does this mean for autism services? Over the past several years the autism community has been dealing with austerity through the Wynne Liberals. The last time Moody warned of an impending credit downgrade Wynne slashed special needs education budgets, tried to lower the age of behavioral therapy, and froze special services at home funding. Just in time for the election Wynne has stopped a lot of the austerity measures she put into place, and focused more investment in autism services in Ontario, with huge spending promises in other areas.
The NDP have released their platform, which is huge on spending rather than prioritizing. The NDP in their election platform have stated that they are willing to keep the status quo in Wynne’s investment in Autism Services. In fact NDP MPP Monique Taylor took to social media to try and calm the nerves of parents that the NDP would in fact keep investments the Liberals have made in place, however did not respond to questions regarding Moody’s economic outlook downgrade and what the NDP would do to shift priories to protect the disabled from austerity measures. Taylor who has championed parents’ plight with austerity in the past is currently being sued for human rights abuses in her own constituency office. NDP leader Andrea Horwath has stated in the past that she may take action against Ms. Taylor if a negative judgement is placed on Taylor’s conduct.
Doug Ford hasn’t released any policy platform at all.
With a credit downgrade almost certain in the near future with the current platforms, all three parties should clearly express to the people of Ontario exactly what their priorities are and where the cuts will be. The disabled should not be the punching bag of austerity. They’ve been through enough of that over the past few years. The cupboards so to speak are already bare. The tax payers deserve answers.
UPDATE 12:43: Finance Minister Charles Sousa has responded to the Moody’s downgrade:
— NEWSTALK1010 (@NEWSTALK1010) April 18, 2018
You can read the full Moody’s press release below: