Archive for category Patrick Brown
The latest poll from Abacus shows that the PC’s and NDP are now neck in neck with Ontario voters. The PC’s lead seems to have evaporated, and the progressive vote is moving from the Liberals over to the NDP.
The PC campaign has been plagued with controversy over this past week, from the selloff of user data from the 407 to help with PC fundraising, to PC Leader Doug Ford secretly attending a fundraiser outside of the election period and breaking election laws, to the York Regional Police and Election Ontario opening up investigations into the theft of data from the 407 ETR. It’s no wonder why to end his week Ford chose to stop in York-Simcoe that has been considered a “safe” riding for the PC’s.
Hoping to get a warm reception in York-Simcoe, Ford was met by several concerned residents over the backroom sell off of the Greenbelt which is still a very hot topic locally. You can view the exchange below:
— Robin Mae Legault (@MaeLegault) May 19, 2018
With election day two and a half weeks away, this election is shaping up to be one of change. Ontario voters don’t seem to be too interested in a right wing populist movement as we’ve seen with in the US with Trump. Earlier last year I discussed the real chances of the NDP shaping government and that this election will be shape up around the millennial vote which typically votes progressive left. Journalists are reporting that millennials seem to be quite engaged in this election:
Elections Ontario staff at my polling place who has worked on every fed/prov elxn in my riding since 2005 says she’s already noticed much higher number of first-time voters — young people and immigrants. Excellent.
— David Akin 🇨🇦 (@davidakin) May 19, 2018
Over the past year we’ve seen shifts in policy by both the PC’s and Liberals over to the left in expectation of this. The PC’s felt the party was too far left in its policies under previous leadership and staged a coup against former PC leader Patrick Brown, opting for a right wing populist Doug Ford. The Liberals had a chance to replace their leader Kathleen Wynne during an expected change election and chose not too. Both parties seem to have miscalculated, and in two and a half weeks we’ll find out how large of a miscalculation will be for both parties.
Patrick Brown decided today that he was ending his candidacy for the Ontario PC Leadership race due to death threats and harassment his family received, and also due to his mother apparently being hospitalized because she can’t handle the stress of her son’s public life. This abrupt end to Brown comes on the heels that the Integrity Commissioner of Ontario announcing he would be investigating Brown’s finances, and a report by the Toronto Star in which the Star obtained e-mails that appear to show Brown’s intent in getting a favorable outcome in a nomination riding that is currently under investigation by law enforcement.
The mic drop on this whole month long Brown fiasco, came from podcaster and political pundit Jen Gerson who pushed back on Brown’s earlier comments that his female accusers from a month ago in the CTV news story should get in contact with Barrie Police:
I would also politely but firmly suggest that if @brownbarrie has received death threats, and he stands by those allegations, he should be urged to contact the Barrie Police, who can be reached at 705-725-7025.
— Jen Gerson (@jengerson) February 27, 2018
We here at Mind Bending Politics have been following the Ontario PC Leadership race closely over the past month. Here’s a quick summery of this unprecedented race and where each leadership candidate stands on their platforms and issues:
Patrick Brown: I’m out, no I mean I’m in. I’m the only one with a platform, and I’m popular. Aaaaaaand…I’m out!
Caroline Mulroney: Elect me because I’m not Wynne. Hockey equipment is more important than hydro, because not everyone can afford hockey equipment for their kids like me!
Christine Elliot: I’m a steady hand. I want to stick it to Trudeau over carbon taxes and I’m willing to spend millions of your hard earn tax payer dollars to fight a legal battle we can’t win, but it’ll look good on me so why not. Hey don’t look over there, look at my steady hands. Steady hands remember, steady hands.
Doug Ford: I’m not my brother. I don’t do the crack, and I promise I will run the province from my mother’s basement. On the plus side, the Queen’s Park press pool can have free access to my Xbox and games during my press conferences, and mom will bring down the pop and chips. As of July 1st free joints on the house!
Tanya Granic Allen: I really, really don’t like anal sex and Nazis. But I really love caffeine, and I’m not winning over people with this? Maybe I’ll have a better chance at roll up the rim. Yeah, yeah caffeine it is!
For those of you who think the above is being too sarcastic. Not so much. #SendPositiveThoughts2Ontario
Since the Patrick Brown scandal broke on CTV, there are a lot of unanswered questions about the allegations surrounding Brown’s accusers of sexual misconduct, to the role both the party and the reporting by CTV News played in Brown’s freefall as leader of the Ontario PC party. In a two part interview with Global TV which played out over two days, Brown blasted CTV News for its reporting on the scandal calling it utterly false. Brown also dropped a bombshell stating that he didn’t authorize his own resignation. Toronto’s CityTV was pushed out of the PC’s offices in Queen’s Park when asking for proof of Brown’s resignation. Combine that with a leadership race in which all leaders are willing to throw out the party platform to take a much less progressive direction in their bid to wow voters, and we start to see a pandora’s box opening up on the Ontario PC Party.
Brown stated in his interview with Global that he has a lot of political foes inside and outside the party that could have set this all up and that CTV didn’t do their due diligence in its reporting on the matter. From following this story closely over the past few weeks, there has been several news organizations trying to verify CTV’s reporting on the allegations and have not been able to verify CTV’s reports on Brown’s sexual misconduct. Eventually the media themselves have raised questions on CTV’s reporting on the allegations. Then it was revealed that witnesses to the events CTV reported on had a different take on what had transpired were ignored. Brown has threatened legal action on CTV News.
When listening to the PC leadership debates, it’s quite clear that all of the proposed candidates are way more right than Brown. Leadership hopeful Christine Elliot even suggesting that the province needs to privatize autism services in Ontario. This would be a front to the privatization of health care in this province and representative of far right wing ideology. Full disclosure I have a child with autism. This approach would mean that needed therapy and supports would be out of our reach financially. While the federal conservatives argued against due process with respect to Omar Khadr, and that the financial pay Khadr received should have gone to kids with autism, I’m really curious to know as a parent with a child who has autism, what the federal conservatives think with respect to Elliot’s suggestion of privatization, and what they think on due process for Brown.
What seems to have transpired is that this inside hit job on Brown could be best described as the right wing of the party going after the progressives. If that is the case, than we can expect to sit back and watch this party plunge itself into civil war prior to an election and there’s a lot of indication that’s going to happen in the weeks ahead. There are indications that the voters of Ontario may have shifted from a traditional right of center voting intentions to left of center lead by the millennials. Brown represented that shift with a much more progressive direction he wanted to take the province in. If the party’s shift is to the right, it’s going to be very difficult to not just win the next election, but if civil war breaks out in the party it’s going to be near impossible for the party to win opposition let alone form government.
Whatever the case maybe, the public is owed an explanation and transparency by the party prior to any new leader taking over so that voters of this province can make an informed choice moving forward.
Like many when I first heard the news about the allegations made against Patrick Brown, I jumped on the bandwagon. My first thought was how disgusting a man he is, but when I actually saw the reports and those who have launched the allegations against Brown speak; I was so shocked not to hear any accusations of criminal wrongdoing. I was expecting something similar to Jian Ghomeshi and reports of sexual violence. No we didn’t hear that at all, instead we heard from two women whose identities were masked and allegations of feeling uncomfortable around Brown after a night of partying and admittedly voiced their concerns to Brown, and Brown took them home. By no means were these allegations of rape or sexual violence. Barrie police have indicated they are not following through with an investigation.
The PC Party moved swiftly to remove Brown within a matter of hours after these allegations came to light. I’ve reported on this blog, and have heard from several sources previously that many in the PC party thought Brown would lose the next election. He wasn’t popular with the public; in fact many across the province didn’t know who he was until last week when these allegations came to light. He was also not popular in the party for being too left leaning. The speed in which the PC party moved was also a red flag. The following day caucus members held a press conference which seemed very hastily done, which also raised my concerned. The events that followed that caucus press conference, seems to strongly suggest a party coup:
The accusations being made anonymously are around misconduct, not criminal activity but the accusations are being treated as criminal in the court of public opinion.
CTV reported they had two more women who have come forward regarding allegations of misconduct against Brown, but what was reported was third party hearsay:
We had Lisa MacLeod trying to take out the executive of the party before walking into a caucus meeting trying to position herself for leadership contention:
Only to backtrack after a leader was appointed:
Then we had an appointed interim leader spar off with the press over the term “leader”
We then have the caucus’s decision overturned by the party for an election.
This all seems to point to MacLeod at present possibly Fedeli as well.
I’m not at all trying to discredit what’s being alleged by the women who came forward, but we need a balance so that women aren’t afraid to speak out but at the same time we don’t end up with knee jerk reactions and convictions in the court of public opinion based on hearsay. By the time these allegations hit social media, the damage is done, and very hard to recover from if these allegations prove to be false. There’s also a national security risk tied to this as well.
Global adversaries infiltrated the black lives matter movement, during the US election last year. If adversaries see politicians being taken down on anonymous allegations of “misconduct”, that has the very high potential of effecting our political landscape to their own advantage. I don’t know what the answers are but the past 48 hours aren’t it. I also don’t think Fedeli should be allowed to run a leadership contention either. Intern leaders have an unfair edge over the others.
There is a very real chance that the #metoo movement in Canada could have the opposite effect on Canadian women that it intends. Accusers should not be not judge, jury and executioners. There is a danger that false accusations could arise, and innocent lives destroyed. Some say, that’s justice to all the harm women have endured under powerful man, however what’s more likely to happen is as we go through this movement, employers may look upon women as too risky to hire because any accusation ejected onto social media with complete disregard for facts, and based on rumor and gossip can ruin a person in a matter of seconds. Basing allegations on hearsay could also mean that women are also subjected to false accusations of professional misconduct as well, which is something Green Party Elizabeth May is currently dealing with.
A plan to move forward must treat each party equally and with respect for the law, and with respect to each party’s rights under law. The right to speak out and the right to be presumed innocent until proven guilty must be upheld. Without this very basic concept of human rights, we risk descending into chaos, with real world repercussions on all of our security and will set back gains made for decades in civil rights, and equality. We are a nation of laws. We must decide if we plan on keeping it that way.
(CUPE Says Money Should Go To Its Members Rather Than Autistic Kids)
CUPE who is the union representing educational assistants (EA) in the province of Ontario released a press release this week in which it has lambasted the provincial government for piloting a project which will allow autistic kids to receive privately purchased therapy to be administered in public schools. CUPE says by doing this would open the door to privately funded education, and that its current members are not qualified to handle special needs students despite millions that have been negotiated in front line workers with the province over recent years.
As part of its revamp of Autism services in Ontario the provincial government is expected in the next few months to allow families a choice to purchase Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) therapy for kids with autism privately or go through publicly funded Centre’s. This move by the province to offer a private option paid for by the province is expected to reduce wait times for this needed therapy.
The move by the province to pilot a project to allow privately purchased workers to administer this therapy in school would be a necessity to the success of students receiving that therapy at the choice of the families, and lighten the load on parents who often have had to drive autistic kids to and from these appointments, often in separate cities in which the these children are being educated in and miss days at work. CUPE on the other hand thinks that the province should shell out that money to retrain EA’s across the province, rather than give parents a choice or say in their child’s therapy:
“We represent 13,000 Educational Assistants who work hard, with other Board employees and parents, to develop and deliver individualized educational programs to assist students with multiple challenges, including those with autism,” said Terri Preston, Chair of the CUPE Ontario School Board Coordinating Committee. “They are deeply concerned by any initiative that opens the door to the privatization of those critical services in our schools.”
Parents of children with special needs, including children with autism, have every right to expect they can walk into their local school and receive the services their children need, fully funded and publicly provided,” said Fred Hahn, President of CUPE Ontario. “They shouldn’t have to worry about securing outside funding, finding a private provider or paying out of their own pockets, to ensure their children succeed at school. That is the responsibility of the government and instead of just abdicating their role to private operators, they should be properly funding and providing all the necessary services students with special needs require.”
The ABA therapy these kids will be receiving will most likely be publicly funded as part of the new Ontario Autism Program. Terri Preston, Chair of the CUPE Ontario School Board Coordinating Committee essentially stated in this bizarre press release from CUPE that the union negotiated $52 million from the province for front line workers recently, who by admission of this press release are not qualified enough to be working with special needs kids in our public schools, and the government must pay for unqualified staff to get degrees in behavior analysis (which is a two year full time university course at Brock University):
“As education workers, we know students with special needs need more front-line staff support,” said Preston. “It’s why, in contract extension talks with the government, we negotiated $52 million over two years to increase front-line staff working with students with special needs. Even with those hard-won investments, more support is needed for students with a variety of complex needs and that’s why the government needs to finally conduct a long-overdue funding formula review.”
The press release gets a hell of a lot weirder as you read on. In its closing remarks after blasting the government for allowing parents a choice and complaining that its membership is under-qualified to support kids with special needs ended the press release with this statement:
“Many of us already have ABA training or incorporate ABA principles into our work with students,” said Laura Walton, an Educational Assistant who is also Vice-Chair of CUPE’s Ontario School Board Coordinating Committee. “Educational Assistants are constantly upgrading their skills and knowledge, often at their own expense, so any funded training opportunities are always welcome. We have been asking the government to ensure Educational Assistants, and all board employees who work to address the complex needs of our students, have access to an array of professional development opportunities, including ABA training.”
Wouldn’t working with privately funded ABA therapists which I would think would be the goal of the government here, be more beneficial to both their own members and the students they serve? Wouldn’t that give EA’s workplace experience in ABA working alongside these therapists? Where’s the outrage from CUPE that university or college programs educating future EA’s are not required under law to ensure an extensive ABA training? After a $52 million investment from the province in front line EA workers to support special needs, why is the province agreeing with CUPE to hire unqualified staff in a $52 million negotiation in the first place? In our view it should not be the position of the province or tax payer to front the bill for unqualified staff. Simply hiring qualified staff would be a better more economical option, or better yet CUPE can pick up that tab.
The problem that exists right now in the education system is one where there is money in the system, but it’s not getting to the students that need it. There’s no accountability in the education system right now. From this press release, it sounds that CUPE wants to be showered again with government coffers, while the rights of special needs kids in the system are yet again pitted against the needs of education sector unions. For its part, in its press release CUPE blames successive Liberal and PC governments for the lack of supports in our school system, yet falls short on criticizing the NDP who have yet to come out with a platform recognizing the lack of accountability the public education system is currently facing right now – the lives that have already been lost across the province to due education sector unions ignoring student mental health issues – the full time battles parents of kids of all levels have had to deal with as a result of these unions – yet we continue to shove money down the throats of this unaccountable system in hopes it gets better. $52 million CUPE negotiated went towards unqualified staff. When will the rights of all students in Ontario be put before union demands, and when will we have an accountable public education system?
A new poll conducted by Ipsos found that 76% of Ontarians want a new party in the Ontario Legislature in 2018. The Ontario Liberals have long ignored calls from people across the province and from members of their own party that current leader and premier Kathleen Wynne needs to be ousted and people want change. Are the Liberals now poised to recreate the mistakes of the Democrats south of the border with Hillary Clinton in ignoring calls for a change election?
Last week TVO’s Agenda aired a one on one interview with Wynne. Steve Paikin didn’t mince words, and put Wynne on the hot seat from everything from Hydro, to Green Energy, to her unpopularity across the province, and calls for her to step down. Wynne’s responses seemed rather tone deaf to a lot of the concerns of most people in Ontario, and she didn’t seem rather confident in her prospects post 2018.
Wynne over the past few months has been focusing the party more towards the left. She has been trying to move people over from the NDP over to the Liberals in policies such as free tuition, and a $15/hour minimum wage hike, however that may be of more benefit to the NDP come election time as Wynne’s personal popularity has plumbed and people are looking for change.
Ipsos currently puts the PC’s upfront at 39%, Liberals at 32%, and the NDP at 22%. The PC’s out of all the major parties have risen quite a bit of money for 2018. The big problem is with its leadership. No one truly knows what Patrick Brown stands for on policy other than opposing Wynne on everything she does. He often takes up popular movements, only after the popular movement has died down. He’s not a family man, and no kids. The party has also been plagued with infighting in nomination races, with accusations of corruption and ballot stuffing. We’ve been following Brown on a number of policy fronts over the past year, and we think that the more people get to know him, the more people will discover that Brown’s PCs will be too much of a risk to take since by all accounts the party and the leadership looks unstable under his rein.
The biggest beneficiary to a change election could be the Ontario NDP. The only people that have their arms up over Wynne’s leftist moves in policy are the traditional PC hardcore base. Liberal and NDP voters are likely to vote NDP next election due to this being a change election. It would be a very hard sell to see Liberal voters voting for Brown in next election. The move to the left by Wynne in policy will likely gravitate Liberal voters who are upset with Wynne over to the NDP.
Another big factor is an aging demographic, and health care. Boomers who have been supporters of the PC’s in the past do remember the Harris cuts to health care. With the PC’s vaguely calling for a value for money audit on all government ministries, this screams of cuts to services. Who determines the value for each ministry, and how will that be decided is quite a mystery at present. Millennials are now the main demographic in Ontario and are more than likely to vote on the left. A low voter turn out usually benefits conservatives, which is unlikely in a change election.
Traditionally when Liberals are in power federally, Ontario goes PC. The problem is that tradition in politics globally and also across the country is no longer exists. Free tuition, and drug plans are to be a big hit with the Millennials in which both the NDP and Liberals have adopted in policy. With Ipsos polling NDP Leader Andrea Horwath as the most supported for premier in 2018 at 42%, one can probably expect Ontario will be Orange in June of 2018.
(Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath Could Be the Strongest Leader In Contention For 2018)
With the next provincial election coming into view in Ontario, have the Liberals made a fatal mistake on keeping Kathleen Wynne at the helm? Recent polls put Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown up front, however many don’t know what he stands for besides opposing the current government, and the PC’s base in Ontario are widely viewed as far right Donald Trump supporters, rather than progressives. Could Ontario see a collapse of the right in 2018, and the NDP climb to power under a protest vote against, both the PC’s and Liberals?
The NDP in Ontario under Andrea Horwath have been pretty upfront over the past few years, including putting out some of their platform for the Ontario 2018 election which includes a universal pharmacare plan in Ontario. The major voting demographic in Ontario are the millennials, which far surpass the aging boomer population and are more left leaning in their voting tendencies. Over the past few months the Wynne Liberals have been trying to occupy some of the NDP’s platforms by instituting pharma and dental care for kids in Ontario. They’ve also instituted free tuition for lower income students, and piloted a guaranteed basic income project, all of which come from the left side of the political spectrum to try and win over those votes.
Wynne is banking on a few things to secure her win in 2018. The fact Brown is not a strong leader, and she’ll bring up memories of the health care cuts under Harris, which will be an attempt to move the aging boomer vote towards the Liberals. Brown also has had to deal with issues over infighting for local nominations for the party, and has been tone deaf on a lot of the issues the people of Ontario are faced with until they end up in the media. He often jumps on popular movements far too late, and takes credit for sticking it to the Wynne Liberals. We saw this during the autism movement where Brown in question period for three weeks during the parent’s protests, not once brought up any support for that movement. He recently claimed victory for parents stating that he fought for extra money from the province for autistic kids and won. Over the past year, things have got worse not better for these kids, and we haven’t seen any new money flow from Wynne, instead we’ve seen cuts to support, funding for special needs education cut, and wait lists that have grown substantially from what seemingly looks like a “net zero” approach to pay off 2,100 families waiting for services in June of last year.
Wynne is also banking on making an argument that Ontario can’t afford Horwath, and bring back big bad memories of former premier Bob Rae, which is an argument that is pretty much mute since Wynne is trying to occupy the NDP platform, and to many millennials Rae is a Liberal. Horwath is nicknamed the “Hamilton Scrapper”. Over the past few elections Horwath has had to deal with the ghost of Rae, which has overshadowed a lot of her strengths. Horwath when she sat on Hamilton City Council was a super star in her riding. She fought vigorously for the people and businesses she represented, and got things done. Not just done, but done correctly and fast. If Horwath can shake the ghosts of leaders past, and come out swinging, she’ll be the only leader that will look strong from the three traditional parties on that stage come 2018.
Brown for his part will not just have an image problem because he is tone deaf, but will have a very hard time shaking off Trump when the failure of that movement could come to a head in the US during our provincial election. With a lot of Canadians paying attention to how Russia was involved in developing fake news, and directing fake social media accounts to push the alt-right into the White House, it’s going to be very difficult for Brown to run an effective social media campaign.
For Wynne, this is a change election heading into 2018. With the Liberals in power now for over 14 years, and the people of Ontario reminded almost weekly about mismanagement, its going to be a very uphill battle to sell that change isn’t needed and Ontario needs to stay on its current course. For its part the Liberal Party in Ontario, may have made a grave mistake in leaving Wynne at the helm during a “change” election.
Jason Koblovsky is a freelance political and policy analyst, and syndicated political blogger commenting on Ontario, Canadian and US Politics. He is also a senior writer and contributor to Mind Bending Politics. If you would like to have your Op-Ed featured on Mind Bending Politics, send submissions to jkobopoli at rogers dot com