There has been a lot of chatter over the past few days on social media that has been making the rounds with people who follow politics closely, that major developments regarding the 407 ETR fraud investigation could be inbound over the next few days. That chatter, seems to coincide with Liberal lawyers poking the bear on this issue, as Newstalk1010 picked up the exclusive from the Liberals.
A letter was sent out today by the lawyers representing the Ontario Liberal Party asking Ontario’s chief electoral officer Greg Essensa to ensure that 407 ETR bills are not used as identification on voting day due to the fact that it is “reasonably likely” 407 ETR data was used fraudulently by the Progressive Conservatives during their nominations. Given the fact that the advanced polls closed earlier this week, this letter today could suggest that there have been recent developments unfolding.
Two police districts are looking into the possibility of fraud and identity theft allegedly conducted by a former PC party candidate during the parties nominations earlier this year. Elections Ontario has also confirmed that they are investigating as well. You can read the letter below: Click on images to enlarge.
The PC’s released a platform today outlining the costs associated on their campaign promises but failed to provide any information on how these promises would be paid for. Mike Moffatt who is a director at the independent think tank Canada 2020, and an associate professor at the Ivey Business School, has crunched the latest numbers in an updated post, and as you can see from the above the party is still with the highest deficit projections.
What’s worse is that the party platform released today, may have not been approved by the party:
Two Conservative sources told the Star that Ford’s platform not only lacks a fiscal plan but also wasn’t formally approved by the party’s policy committee, as is required by the PC constitution.
As one conservative commentator put it:
They seem to be relying on the plumbs of “The People’s Guarantee” without the funding of the carbon tax.
The question is: what tax are they replacing it with?
If no plan to bring in tax, two possibilities:
— Maddie Di Muccio (@MaddieDiMuccio) May 30, 2018
A new EKOS poll released today shows the current election in Ontario in a dead heat with the NDP up slightly at 38.4%, PC’s 37.9%, Liberals at 19.1%, and the Greens at 3.3%.
There is a lot of volatility with the millennial vote in this poll as the millennials have been known to screw with pollsters. Frank Graves the CEO of EKOS stated over twitter they found a lot of volatile movement in the polling samples from the millennial’s and they were having a hard time getting a good read on that. In fact this poll was delayed for a few days to confirm what they were seeing in the data.
What’s more interesting is that the NDP seems to be chewing at the PC base, showing NDP leads now with older voters:
And a shift in support by the middle class which the NDP now lead in:
What does all this mean. It means that if the NDP continue to chew at the PC base, the NDP could likely win more seats even if they are a few points ahead. If that base shifts back to the PC’s the same scenario would play out on the PC side. When asked about the possibility of a late shift in the polls a few days prior to election day, Graves had this to offer on social media:
Don’t expect as much .There has already been huge movement . Because of the tightness of race, even modest movements could yield profoundly different outcomes.
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 30, 2018
So buckle up! It looks like this election will be decided at the ballot box on June 7th. But if current trends continue, the NDP could likely to form the next government in Ontario.
Whether you plan to vote strategically or you are curious to see how your riding is shaping up, the tooclosetocall site has an excellent Ontario Elections Simulator that crunches the numbers on a riding by riding basis. These numbers also factor in the undecided vote, voter efficiency and incumbency. The latest numbers as of today May 28th, 2018 are displayed below. Visit the tooclosetocall Ontario election simulator for updated results until election day.
Don’t forget you can vote throughout the week at advanced polling stations until Wednesday May 30th, at 8pm, and of course on Election Day June 7th. For more information on locations of advanced polls and any other voting related questions, visit the Elections Ontario website.
A new Ipsos poll shows for the first time the Ontario NDP in the lead. The poll also shows that the NDP have started to chip away at the Tory base in the 905. The NDP are now in a statistical tie with the PC’s in the 905 region, with the PC’s holding a slight advantage in the Toronto 416 ridings. The Tories still lead in Eastern Ontario by 10 points.
This shift in the 905 could be a result of voters a still angry over the backroom deal to sell off of the greenbelt. As we reported previously, voters in the 905 are still very raw on the issue. Another factor could be that the PC’s are under investigation by two law enforcement divisions and Elections Ontario regarding fraud and stolen data from the 407 ETR. Whatever the case this is a stunning turn of events in the Ontario election, as once again it looks like the PC’s commanding lead at the beginning has vanished, and voters are looking elsewhere.
Mike Moffatt who is a director at the independent think tank Canada 2020, and an associate professor at the Ivey Business School, has come up with an interesting post comparing the platforms of each party in the Ontario election and how they compare to deficit projections. Moffatt’s deficit projections put the PC’s with the highest run deficits, with the Liberals in close second, and the NDP with the lowest deficit projections. These numbers include the recent correction of $1.4 billion/year the NDP has had to make on reserves.
Moffatt noted that there is a lot of unknowns when it comes to the PC platform, however right now – on the information they have currently provided to the public – the PCs seem to be running significantly higher deficits in their platform than the other two parties.
There has been a lot of hyperbole recently over the NDP Platform to make Ontario a sanctuary province by registered third party PC activists Ontario Proud. These activists are blatantly misleading their followers on this platform. The NDP platform is promising that regardless of immigration status it will not withhold “life saving” treatment from patients. Something PC Leader Doug Ford voted to approve when he was a Toronto City Councillor:
If Ford voted in favor of making Toronto a sanctuary city, than one can reasonably expect that could also be the case going forward if he wins the election. It’s not a bad idea, and providing life saving treatment to those in need is not only respecting our values as a province, but also respecting the provinces responsibility under human rights, and law. I think the people of Ontario need a definitive answer on whether Ford will in fact continue his support for this initiative, and follow human rights laws in Ontario if elected premier.