Posts Tagged ONELXN18
There has been a lot of chatter over the past few days on social media that has been making the rounds with people who follow politics closely, that major developments regarding the 407 ETR fraud investigation could be inbound over the next few days. That chatter, seems to coincide with Liberal lawyers poking the bear on this issue, as Newstalk1010 picked up the exclusive from the Liberals.
A letter was sent out today by the lawyers representing the Ontario Liberal Party asking Ontario’s chief electoral officer Greg Essensa to ensure that 407 ETR bills are not used as identification on voting day due to the fact that it is “reasonably likely” 407 ETR data was used fraudulently by the Progressive Conservatives during their nominations. Given the fact that the advanced polls closed earlier this week, this letter today could suggest that there have been recent developments unfolding.
Two police districts are looking into the possibility of fraud and identity theft allegedly conducted by a former PC party candidate during the parties nominations earlier this year. Elections Ontario has also confirmed that they are investigating as well. You can read the letter below: Click on images to enlarge.
A new EKOS poll released today shows the current election in Ontario in a dead heat with the NDP up slightly at 38.4%, PC’s 37.9%, Liberals at 19.1%, and the Greens at 3.3%.
There is a lot of volatility with the millennial vote in this poll as the millennials have been known to screw with pollsters. Frank Graves the CEO of EKOS stated over twitter they found a lot of volatile movement in the polling samples from the millennial’s and they were having a hard time getting a good read on that. In fact this poll was delayed for a few days to confirm what they were seeing in the data.
What’s more interesting is that the NDP seems to be chewing at the PC base, showing NDP leads now with older voters:
And a shift in support by the middle class which the NDP now lead in:
What does all this mean. It means that if the NDP continue to chew at the PC base, the NDP could likely win more seats even if they are a few points ahead. If that base shifts back to the PC’s the same scenario would play out on the PC side. When asked about the possibility of a late shift in the polls a few days prior to election day, Graves had this to offer on social media:
Don’t expect as much .There has already been huge movement . Because of the tightness of race, even modest movements could yield profoundly different outcomes.
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 30, 2018
So buckle up! It looks like this election will be decided at the ballot box on June 7th. But if current trends continue, the NDP could likely to form the next government in Ontario.
Whether you plan to vote strategically or you are curious to see how your riding is shaping up, the tooclosetocall site has an excellent Ontario Elections Simulator that crunches the numbers on a riding by riding basis. These numbers also factor in the undecided vote, voter efficiency and incumbency. The latest numbers as of today May 28th, 2018 are displayed below. Visit the tooclosetocall Ontario election simulator for updated results until election day.
Don’t forget you can vote throughout the week at advanced polling stations until Wednesday May 30th, at 8pm, and of course on Election Day June 7th. For more information on locations of advanced polls and any other voting related questions, visit the Elections Ontario website.
Mike Moffatt who is a director at the independent think tank Canada 2020, and an associate professor at the Ivey Business School, has come up with an interesting post comparing the platforms of each party in the Ontario election and how they compare to deficit projections. Moffatt’s deficit projections put the PC’s with the highest run deficits, with the Liberals in close second, and the NDP with the lowest deficit projections. These numbers include the recent correction of $1.4 billion/year the NDP has had to make on reserves.
Moffatt noted that there is a lot of unknowns when it comes to the PC platform, however right now – on the information they have currently provided to the public – the PCs seem to be running significantly higher deficits in their platform than the other two parties.
The latest poll from Abacus shows that the PC’s and NDP are now neck in neck with Ontario voters. The PC’s lead seems to have evaporated, and the progressive vote is moving from the Liberals over to the NDP.
The PC campaign has been plagued with controversy over this past week, from the selloff of user data from the 407 to help with PC fundraising, to PC Leader Doug Ford secretly attending a fundraiser outside of the election period and breaking election laws, to the York Regional Police and Election Ontario opening up investigations into the theft of data from the 407 ETR. It’s no wonder why to end his week Ford chose to stop in York-Simcoe that has been considered a “safe” riding for the PC’s.
Hoping to get a warm reception in York-Simcoe, Ford was met by several concerned residents over the backroom sell off of the Greenbelt which is still a very hot topic locally. You can view the exchange below:
— Robin Mae Legault (@MaeLegault) May 19, 2018
With election day two and a half weeks away, this election is shaping up to be one of change. Ontario voters don’t seem to be too interested in a right wing populist movement as we’ve seen with in the US with Trump. Earlier last year I discussed the real chances of the NDP shaping government and that this election will be shape up around the millennial vote which typically votes progressive left. Journalists are reporting that millennials seem to be quite engaged in this election:
Elections Ontario staff at my polling place who has worked on every fed/prov elxn in my riding since 2005 says she’s already noticed much higher number of first-time voters — young people and immigrants. Excellent.
— David Akin 🇨🇦 (@davidakin) May 19, 2018
Over the past year we’ve seen shifts in policy by both the PC’s and Liberals over to the left in expectation of this. The PC’s felt the party was too far left in its policies under previous leadership and staged a coup against former PC leader Patrick Brown, opting for a right wing populist Doug Ford. The Liberals had a chance to replace their leader Kathleen Wynne during an expected change election and chose not too. Both parties seem to have miscalculated, and in two and a half weeks we’ll find out how large of a miscalculation will be for both parties.
A new poll conducted by Ipsos found that 76% of Ontarians want a new party in the Ontario Legislature in 2018. The Ontario Liberals have long ignored calls from people across the province and from members of their own party that current leader and premier Kathleen Wynne needs to be ousted and people want change. Are the Liberals now poised to recreate the mistakes of the Democrats south of the border with Hillary Clinton in ignoring calls for a change election?
Last week TVO’s Agenda aired a one on one interview with Wynne. Steve Paikin didn’t mince words, and put Wynne on the hot seat from everything from Hydro, to Green Energy, to her unpopularity across the province, and calls for her to step down. Wynne’s responses seemed rather tone deaf to a lot of the concerns of most people in Ontario, and she didn’t seem rather confident in her prospects post 2018.
Wynne over the past few months has been focusing the party more towards the left. She has been trying to move people over from the NDP over to the Liberals in policies such as free tuition, and a $15/hour minimum wage hike, however that may be of more benefit to the NDP come election time as Wynne’s personal popularity has plumbed and people are looking for change.
Ipsos currently puts the PC’s upfront at 39%, Liberals at 32%, and the NDP at 22%. The PC’s out of all the major parties have risen quite a bit of money for 2018. The big problem is with its leadership. No one truly knows what Patrick Brown stands for on policy other than opposing Wynne on everything she does. He often takes up popular movements, only after the popular movement has died down. He’s not a family man, and no kids. The party has also been plagued with infighting in nomination races, with accusations of corruption and ballot stuffing. We’ve been following Brown on a number of policy fronts over the past year, and we think that the more people get to know him, the more people will discover that Brown’s PCs will be too much of a risk to take since by all accounts the party and the leadership looks unstable under his rein.
The biggest beneficiary to a change election could be the Ontario NDP. The only people that have their arms up over Wynne’s leftist moves in policy are the traditional PC hardcore base. Liberal and NDP voters are likely to vote NDP next election due to this being a change election. It would be a very hard sell to see Liberal voters voting for Brown in next election. The move to the left by Wynne in policy will likely gravitate Liberal voters who are upset with Wynne over to the NDP.
Another big factor is an aging demographic, and health care. Boomers who have been supporters of the PC’s in the past do remember the Harris cuts to health care. With the PC’s vaguely calling for a value for money audit on all government ministries, this screams of cuts to services. Who determines the value for each ministry, and how will that be decided is quite a mystery at present. Millennials are now the main demographic in Ontario and are more than likely to vote on the left. A low voter turn out usually benefits conservatives, which is unlikely in a change election.
Traditionally when Liberals are in power federally, Ontario goes PC. The problem is that tradition in politics globally and also across the country is no longer exists. Free tuition, and drug plans are to be a big hit with the Millennials in which both the NDP and Liberals have adopted in policy. With Ipsos polling NDP Leader Andrea Horwath as the most supported for premier in 2018 at 42%, one can probably expect Ontario will be Orange in June of 2018.