Posts Tagged Ontario Liberal Party
In a surprising turn of events, Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne has conceded that the Liberals will not win the next election. Some recent projections have the party holding on to maybe one or two seats after the polls close on June 7th. This concession has effectively thrown most of her candidates under the bus. There are reports surfacing on social media that those who have been supporting the Liberals in this election are starting to take their election signs down.
It’s widely expected that with this concession, Liberal voters will move their support to the more progressive option in this election which is the NDP. PC leader Doug Ford remained virtually silent on Wynne’s concession today. In fact over the past several days reporters following Ford’s campaign have reported on social media that he is being held back by his team, cancelling scheduled media interviews and generally not answering any questions. The last time this happened for a length of time, a major story ended up breaking regarding alleged fraud by a former 407 ETR employee and PC candidate. I posted yesterday that there are indications and a lot of chatter that details of relating to the 407 story could be forthcoming in a matter of days.
NDP leader Andrea Horwath responded to Wynne’s concession that the only party able to stop a Ford government and a right wing populist movement is to vote NDP. Current polling has both the NDP and the PC’s neck and neck. This will most likely change over the next few days as we see Liberal voters move over to the NDP.
While Wynne’s move is admirable to some, the hell this government put families of autistic children through over the past two years is not. Karma as it seems has run its full course. Future governments should take note.
There has been a lot of chatter over the past few days on social media that has been making the rounds with people who follow politics closely, that major developments regarding the 407 ETR fraud investigation could be inbound over the next few days. That chatter, seems to coincide with Liberal lawyers poking the bear on this issue, as Newstalk1010 picked up the exclusive from the Liberals.
A letter was sent out today by the lawyers representing the Ontario Liberal Party asking Ontario’s chief electoral officer Greg Essensa to ensure that 407 ETR bills are not used as identification on voting day due to the fact that it is “reasonably likely” 407 ETR data was used fraudulently by the Progressive Conservatives during their nominations. Given the fact that the advanced polls closed earlier this week, this letter today could suggest that there have been recent developments unfolding.
Two police districts are looking into the possibility of fraud and identity theft allegedly conducted by a former PC party candidate during the parties nominations earlier this year. Elections Ontario has also confirmed that they are investigating as well. You can read the letter below: Click on images to enlarge.
A new EKOS poll released today shows the current election in Ontario in a dead heat with the NDP up slightly at 38.4%, PC’s 37.9%, Liberals at 19.1%, and the Greens at 3.3%.
There is a lot of volatility with the millennial vote in this poll as the millennials have been known to screw with pollsters. Frank Graves the CEO of EKOS stated over twitter they found a lot of volatile movement in the polling samples from the millennial’s and they were having a hard time getting a good read on that. In fact this poll was delayed for a few days to confirm what they were seeing in the data.
What’s more interesting is that the NDP seems to be chewing at the PC base, showing NDP leads now with older voters:
And a shift in support by the middle class which the NDP now lead in:
What does all this mean. It means that if the NDP continue to chew at the PC base, the NDP could likely win more seats even if they are a few points ahead. If that base shifts back to the PC’s the same scenario would play out on the PC side. When asked about the possibility of a late shift in the polls a few days prior to election day, Graves had this to offer on social media:
Don’t expect as much .There has already been huge movement . Because of the tightness of race, even modest movements could yield profoundly different outcomes.
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 30, 2018
So buckle up! It looks like this election will be decided at the ballot box on June 7th. But if current trends continue, the NDP could likely to form the next government in Ontario.
A new Ipsos poll shows for the first time the Ontario NDP in the lead. The poll also shows that the NDP have started to chip away at the Tory base in the 905. The NDP are now in a statistical tie with the PC’s in the 905 region, with the PC’s holding a slight advantage in the Toronto 416 ridings. The Tories still lead in Eastern Ontario by 10 points.
This shift in the 905 could be a result of voters a still angry over the backroom deal to sell off of the greenbelt. As we reported previously, voters in the 905 are still very raw on the issue. Another factor could be that the PC’s are under investigation by two law enforcement divisions and Elections Ontario regarding fraud and stolen data from the 407 ETR. Whatever the case this is a stunning turn of events in the Ontario election, as once again it looks like the PC’s commanding lead at the beginning has vanished, and voters are looking elsewhere.
Mike Moffatt who is a director at the independent think tank Canada 2020, and an associate professor at the Ivey Business School, has come up with an interesting post comparing the platforms of each party in the Ontario election and how they compare to deficit projections. Moffatt’s deficit projections put the PC’s with the highest run deficits, with the Liberals in close second, and the NDP with the lowest deficit projections. These numbers include the recent correction of $1.4 billion/year the NDP has had to make on reserves.
Moffatt noted that there is a lot of unknowns when it comes to the PC platform, however right now – on the information they have currently provided to the public – the PCs seem to be running significantly higher deficits in their platform than the other two parties.
A leaked document reportedly from the Toronto Sun has emerged. In the documents handed to independent media organization CANADALAND show a clear ideological advertising strategy geared towards “exposing the Liberal record during the campaign and advocating for change“. While it is normal for editorial boards to weigh in on the election, this goes far, far beyond that.
The document shows a detailed strategy geared towards unseating the Ontario Liberals. Recently Ontario changed its election laws around third party advertisers. It is unclear whether these documents run foul of those laws, however the fact that there is a detailed strategy in the first place, and the media organization (according to these documents) is clearly advocating for change, will most likely have the eye of Elections Ontario going forward.
Former Sun Media Vice President Kory Teneycke is currently running Doug Ford’s campaign.
A new poll from Forum Research shows a downward trend for the Ontario PC’s since the Patrick Brown resigned as party leader in January. It’s been long suspected that the far right social conservative movement in the party is to blame for putting pressure on Brown to resign. The poll also seems to suggest that there is an uptick in support for the Wynne Liberal’s as disenfranchised progressives from the PC party seem to be correlating around the Liberal’s election platform. This spells bad news for the current PC party leader Doug Ford because if an election were to be held today, he would win, but not with a majority mandate from voters and he doesn’t seem to be connecting with the majority of voters in the province a few months out from a general election.