Posts Tagged Patrick Brown

Has The Ontario PC Party Opened Up a Pandora’s Box With Brown?

Since the Patrick Brown scandal broke on CTV, there are a lot of unanswered questions about the allegations surrounding Brown’s accusers of sexual misconduct, to the role both the party and the reporting by CTV News played in Brown’s freefall as leader of the Ontario PC party. In a two part interview with Global TV which played out over two days, Brown blasted CTV News for its reporting on the scandal calling it utterly false. Brown also dropped a bombshell stating that he didn’t authorize his own resignation. Toronto’s CityTV was pushed out of the PC’s offices in Queen’s Park when asking for proof of Brown’s resignation. Combine that with a leadership race in which all leaders are willing to throw out the party platform to take a much less progressive direction in their bid to wow voters, and we start to see a pandora’s box opening up on the Ontario PC Party.

Brown stated in his interview with Global that he has a lot of political foes inside and outside the party that could have set this all up and that CTV didn’t do their due diligence in its reporting on the matter. From following this story closely over the past few weeks, there has been several news organizations trying to verify CTV’s reporting on the allegations and have not been able to verify CTV’s reports on Brown’s sexual misconduct. Eventually the media themselves have raised questions on CTV’s reporting on the allegations. Then it was revealed that witnesses to the events CTV reported on had a different take on what had transpired were ignored. Brown has threatened legal action on CTV News.

When listening to the PC leadership debates, it’s quite clear that all of the proposed candidates are way more right than Brown. Leadership hopeful Christine Elliot even suggesting that the province needs to privatize autism services in Ontario. This would be a front to the privatization of health care in this province and representative of far right wing ideology. Full disclosure I have a child with autism. This approach would mean that needed therapy and supports would be out of our reach financially. While the federal conservatives argued against due process with respect to Omar Khadr, and that the financial pay Khadr received should have gone to kids with autism, I’m really curious to know as a parent with a child who has autism, what the federal conservatives think with respect to Elliot’s suggestion of privatization, and what they think on due process for Brown.

What seems to have transpired is that this inside hit job on Brown could be best described as the right wing of the party going after the progressives. If that is the case, than we can expect to sit back and watch this party plunge itself into civil war prior to an election and there’s a lot of indication that’s going to happen in the weeks ahead. There are indications that the voters of Ontario may have shifted from a traditional right of center voting intentions to left of center lead by the millennials. Brown represented that shift with a much more progressive direction he wanted to take the province in. If the party’s shift is to the right, it’s going to be very difficult to not just win the next election, but if civil war breaks out in the party it’s going to be near impossible for the party to win opposition let alone form government.

Whatever the case maybe, the public is owed an explanation and transparency by the party prior to any new leader taking over so that voters of this province can make an informed choice moving forward.

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Political Coup and The Dangers of Knee Jerk Reactions to Unproven Allegations

Former Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown Faces Unproven Allegations of Misconduct

Like many when I first heard the news about the allegations made against Patrick Brown, I jumped on the bandwagon. My first thought was how disgusting a man he is, but when I actually saw the reports and those who have launched the allegations against Brown speak; I was so shocked not to hear any accusations of criminal wrongdoing. I was expecting something similar to Jian Ghomeshi and reports of sexual violence. No we didn’t hear that at all, instead we heard from two women whose identities were masked and allegations of feeling uncomfortable around Brown after a night of partying and admittedly voiced their concerns to Brown, and Brown took them home. By no means were these allegations of rape or sexual violence. Barrie police have indicated they are not following through with an investigation.

The PC Party moved swiftly to remove Brown within a matter of hours after these allegations came to light. I’ve reported on this blog, and have heard from several sources previously that many in the PC party thought Brown would lose the next election. He wasn’t popular with the public; in fact many across the province didn’t know who he was until last week when these allegations came to light. He was also not popular in the party for being too left leaning. The speed in which the PC party moved was also a red flag. The following day caucus members held a press conference which seemed very hastily done, which also raised my concerned. The events that followed that caucus press conference, seems to strongly suggest a party coup:

The accusations being made anonymously are around misconduct, not criminal activity but the accusations are being treated as criminal in the court of public opinion.

CTV reported they had two more women who have come forward regarding allegations of misconduct against Brown, but what was reported was third party hearsay:

https://twitter.com/jkobopoli/status/956745762703994880

https://twitter.com/jkobopoli/status/956745808765861889

We had Lisa MacLeod trying to take out the executive of the party before walking into a caucus meeting trying to position herself for leadership contention:

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/956899056701378560

https://twitter.com/JeremyHall1986/status/956935163484819457

Only to backtrack after a leader was appointed:

https://twitter.com/sandragionas/status/956944267133546497

Then we had an appointed interim leader spar off with the press over the term “leader”

https://twitter.com/blakeoliver13/status/956955070981181440

We then have the caucus’s decision overturned by the party for an election.

https://twitter.com/KrisReports/status/957012676907061248

This all seems to point to MacLeod at present possibly Fedeli as well.

I’m not at all trying to discredit what’s being alleged by the women who came forward, but we need a balance so that women aren’t afraid to speak out but at the same time we don’t end up with knee jerk reactions and convictions in the court of public opinion based on hearsay. By the time these allegations hit social media, the damage is done, and very hard to recover from if these allegations prove to be false.  There’s also a national security risk tied to this as well.

Global adversaries infiltrated the black lives matter movement, during the US election last year. If adversaries see politicians being taken down on anonymous allegations of “misconduct”, that has the very high potential of effecting our political landscape to their own advantage. I don’t know what the answers are but the past 48 hours aren’t it. I also don’t think Fedeli should be allowed to run a leadership contention either. Intern leaders have an unfair edge over the others.

There is a very real chance that the #metoo movement in Canada could have the opposite effect on Canadian women that it intends. Accusers should not be not judge, jury and executioners. There is a danger that false accusations could arise, and innocent lives destroyed. Some say, that’s justice to all the harm women have endured under powerful man, however what’s more likely to happen is as we go through this movement, employers may look upon women as too risky to hire because any accusation ejected onto social media with complete disregard for facts, and based on rumor and gossip can ruin a person in a matter of seconds. Basing allegations on hearsay could also mean that women are also subjected to false accusations of professional misconduct as well, which is something Green Party Elizabeth May is currently dealing with.

A plan to move forward must treat each party equally and with respect for the law, and with respect to each party’s rights under law. The right to speak out and the right to be presumed innocent until proven guilty must be upheld. Without this very basic concept of human rights, we risk descending into chaos, with real world repercussions on all of our security and will set back gains made for decades in civil rights, and equality. We are a nation of laws. We must decide if we plan on keeping it that way.

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New Poll Suggests Ontario Is Heading For A Change Of Government

A new poll conducted by Ipsos found that 76% of Ontarians want a new party in the Ontario Legislature in 2018.  The Ontario Liberals have long ignored calls from people across the province and from members of their own party that current leader and premier Kathleen Wynne needs to be ousted and people want change.  Are the Liberals now poised to recreate the mistakes of the Democrats south of the border with Hillary Clinton in ignoring calls for a change election?

Last week TVO’s Agenda aired a one on one interview with Wynne.  Steve Paikin didn’t mince words, and put Wynne on the hot seat from everything from Hydro, to Green Energy, to her unpopularity across the province, and calls for her to step down.  Wynne’s responses seemed rather tone deaf to a lot of the concerns of most people in Ontario, and she didn’t seem rather confident in her prospects post 2018.

Wynne over the past few months has been focusing the party more towards the left.  She has been trying to move people over from the NDP over to the Liberals in policies such as free tuition, and a $15/hour minimum wage hike, however that may be of more benefit to the NDP come election time as Wynne’s personal popularity has plumbed and people are looking for change.

Ipsos currently puts the PC’s upfront at 39%, Liberals at 32%, and the NDP at 22%.  The PC’s out of all the major parties have risen quite a bit of money for 2018.  The big problem is with its leadership.  No one truly knows what Patrick Brown stands for on policy other than opposing Wynne on everything she does.  He often takes up popular movements, only after the popular movement has died down. He’s not a family man, and no kids.  The party has also been plagued with infighting in nomination races, with accusations of corruption and ballot stuffing. We’ve been following Brown on a number of policy fronts over the past year, and we think that the more people get to know him, the more people will discover that Brown’s PCs will be too much of a risk to take since by all accounts the party and the leadership looks unstable under his rein.

The biggest beneficiary to a change election could be the Ontario NDP.  The only people that have their arms up over Wynne’s leftist moves in policy are the traditional PC hardcore base.  Liberal and NDP voters are likely to vote NDP next election due to this being a change election.  It would be a very hard sell to see Liberal voters voting for Brown in next election. The move to the left by Wynne in policy will likely gravitate Liberal voters who are upset with Wynne over to the NDP.

Another big factor is an aging demographic, and health care.  Boomers who have been supporters of the PC’s in the past do remember the Harris cuts to health care.  With the PC’s vaguely calling for a value for money audit on all government ministries, this screams of cuts to services.  Who determines the value for each ministry, and how will that be decided is quite a mystery at present.  Millennials are now the main demographic in Ontario and are more than likely to vote on the left.  A low voter turn out usually benefits conservatives, which is unlikely in a change election.

Traditionally when Liberals are in power federally, Ontario goes PC.  The problem is that tradition in politics globally and also across the country is no longer exists.  Free tuition, and drug plans are to be a big hit with the Millennials in which both the NDP and Liberals have adopted in policy.  With Ipsos polling NDP Leader Andrea Horwath as the most supported for premier in 2018 at 42%, one can probably expect Ontario will be Orange in June of 2018.

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Ontario Minimum Wage Increase A Good Idea

(Businesses Across Ontario Are Being Too Penny Wise With The Proposed Wage Increase)

Scary clowns are a big hit these days at the box office, and while the people of Ontario get acquainted with a clown called Pennywise from the latest version of Stephen Kings IT, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario [FAO] is warning tax payers and job seekers of another scary metamorph; a proposed minimum wage hike of $15/hour.  This increase is set to be fully implemented by 2019 and came under fire yesterday in a report from the FAO.  The FAO stated that it will cost the Ontario economy 50,000 jobs if it goes ahead with this wage hike.

It’s not a surprise that businesses – whom over the past several years have enjoyed a tremendous amount of federal tax breaks – are lining up to oppose this policy and demonizing it as being economically unsound.  Ontario Progressive Conservatives leader Patrick Brown had something to say about it as well, however he brushed off the wage increase a distraction in a bizarre rant on twitter, and Brown isn’t clear on his stance on the policy at all and what he would do differently if he became Premier:

“Wynne is putting potentially 1000s of jobs at risk so she can try and distract from the fact she takes the stand at trial tomorrow #onpoli pic.twitter.com/IUVuQC1VIE

— Patrick Brown (@brownbarrie) September 12, 2017

Brown seems very comfortable in the opposition benches. Offside of the very off tone Ontario PC response, there seems to be a lot of red balloons around the economic storm drains on this policy and it isn’t even Halloween yet.

Since the market crash of 2008, we’ve been shifting from traditional conservative economic ideology (which failed miserably) towards one of managing the economy on several different levels in a bi-partisan way.  Corporate tax cuts have not produced substantial jobs in Canada, in fact the opposite has happened. A study by the Canadian Centre of Policy Alternatives in 2011 found the biggest employers were sitting on the money they saved from these cuts:

“From 2005 to 2010, the number of employed Canadians rose 6% while the number of jobs created by the companies in the study grew by only 5%. In essence, the largest beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts are dragging down Canadian employment growth.”

In 2013, federal conservatives were warned by then Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney that Canadian companies were sitting on vast sums of cash they have saved through tax cuts, and bail outs rather than creating jobs to bolster the economy.  As I remember it Carney stated this several times throughout his time at the Bank of Canada. While company CEO bonuses grew, so did the economic divide in Canada and in Ontario as well as a result of businesses not investing what they should in the local, regional, and federal economies.  The economy has changed post 2008 not just in Canada but globally, and managing this economy has changed as well.

If the cost of living is high throughout the country and the province, than a minimum wage increase to ensure people have the means to survive should be something we all should be embracing patriotically.  Businesses will adjust.  Yes there may be some job losses (in my opinion way less the FAO has reported will happen) in the short term by companies who are not willing to spend profit margins on their employees, however just as those jobs are lost, they will be offset by more spending power by the general worker.  As the minimum wage increases, so should increases to everyone’s wage as the economy grows as a result of more spending power.  At least that would be the working economic theory on this policy. The wage increase is cycled through the economy.  Employees who make more, become more productive and contribute more to the economy on whole.  With many people in Ontario living paycheque to paycheque, and the fact that over the past several years businesses have sat on cash from tax cuts, they can suck it up and do their part.

The Ontario NDP has been calling for this wage hike for some time.   This ideology was also adapted by conservatives who bailed out auto sectors, and bailed out the economy through “stimulus” after the disastrous effects of traditional conservative ideology of deregulation and corporate tax cuts took hold in 2008.  Change is difficult, but necessary post 2008 economics. Greed is no longer good economics, nor is it socially acceptable post 2008.

JK

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NDP Could End Up Winning Ontario In 2018

(Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath Could Be the Strongest Leader In Contention For 2018)

With the next provincial election coming into view in Ontario, have the Liberals made a fatal mistake on keeping Kathleen Wynne at the helm?  Recent polls put Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown up front, however many don’t know what he stands for besides opposing the current government, and the PC’s base in Ontario are widely viewed as far right Donald Trump supporters, rather than progressives. Could Ontario see a collapse of the right in 2018, and the NDP climb to power under a protest vote against, both the PC’s and Liberals?

The NDP in Ontario under Andrea Horwath have been pretty upfront over the past few years, including putting out some of their platform for the Ontario 2018 election which includes a universal pharmacare plan in Ontario.  The major voting demographic in Ontario are the millennials, which far surpass the aging boomer population and are more left leaning in their voting tendencies.  Over the past few months the Wynne Liberals have been trying to occupy some of the NDP’s platforms by instituting pharma and dental care for kids in Ontario.  They’ve also instituted free tuition for lower income students, and piloted a guaranteed basic income project, all of which come from the left side of the political spectrum to try and win over those votes.

Wynne is banking on a few things to secure her win in 2018.  The fact Brown is not a strong leader, and she’ll bring up memories of the health care cuts under Harris, which will be an attempt to move the aging boomer vote towards the Liberals.  Brown also has had to deal with issues over infighting for local nominations for the party, and has been tone deaf on a lot of the issues the people of Ontario are faced with until they end up in the media.  He often jumps on popular movements far too late, and takes credit for sticking it to the Wynne Liberals.  We saw this during the autism movement where Brown in question period for three weeks during the parent’s protests, not once brought up any support for that movement.  He recently claimed victory for parents stating that he fought for extra money from the province for autistic kids and won.  Over the past year, things have got worse not better for these kids, and we haven’t seen any new money flow from Wynne, instead we’ve seen cuts to support, funding for special needs education cut, and wait lists that have grown substantially from what seemingly looks like a “net zero” approach to pay off 2,100 families waiting for services in June of last year.

Wynne is also banking on making an argument that Ontario can’t afford Horwath, and bring back big bad memories of former premier Bob Rae, which is an argument that is pretty much mute since Wynne is trying to occupy the NDP platform, and to many millennials Rae is a Liberal.  Horwath is nicknamed the “Hamilton Scrapper”. Over the past few elections Horwath has had to deal with the ghost of Rae, which has overshadowed a lot of her strengths. Horwath when she sat on Hamilton City Council was a super star in her riding.  She fought vigorously for the people and businesses she represented, and got things done.  Not just done, but done correctly and fast.  If Horwath can shake the ghosts of leaders past, and come out swinging, she’ll be the only leader that will look strong from the three traditional parties on that stage come 2018.

Brown for his part will not just have an image problem because he is tone deaf, but will have a very hard time shaking off Trump when the failure of that movement could come to a head in the US during our provincial election.   With a lot of Canadians paying attention to how Russia was involved in developing fake news, and directing fake social media accounts to push the alt-right into the White House, it’s going to be very difficult for Brown to run an effective social media campaign.

For Wynne, this is a change election heading into 2018.  With the Liberals in power now for over 14 years, and the people of Ontario reminded almost weekly about mismanagement, its going to be a very uphill battle to sell that change isn’t needed and Ontario needs to stay on its current course.  For its part the Liberal Party in Ontario, may have made a grave mistake in leaving Wynne at the helm during a “change” election.

Jason Koblovsky is a freelance political and policy analyst, and syndicated political blogger commenting on Ontario, Canadian and US Politics.  He is also a senior writer and contributor to Mind Bending Politics.  If you would like to have your Op-Ed featured on Mind Bending Politics, send submissions to jkobopoli at rogers dot com

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